Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 0.005124 0.005409 0.005704 0.006030 0.006382 0.006752 0.007169
2024-12-22 0.004585 0.005003 0.005454 0.005979 0.006575 0.007234 0.008022
2024-12-29 0.004200 0.004683 0.005219 0.005862 0.006619 0.007488 0.008571
2025-01-05 0.003918 0.004441 0.005036 0.005769 0.006656 0.007705 0.009058
2025-01-12 0.003744 0.004306 0.004959 0.005781 0.006801 0.008043 0.009694
2025-01-19 0.003479 0.004045 0.004711 0.005566 0.006647 0.007991 0.009824
2025-01-26 0.003364 0.003956 0.004664 0.005588 0.006783 0.008303 0.010433
2025-02-02 0.003327 0.003957 0.004724 0.005745 0.007092 0.008850 0.011388
2025-02-09 0.003189 0.003826 0.004612 0.005670 0.007092 0.008982 0.011773
2025-02-16 0.003088 0.003736 0.004545 0.005650 0.007158 0.009203 0.012293
2025-02-23 0.002985 0.003639 0.004463 0.005604 0.007185 0.009366 0.012735
2025-03-02 0.002946 0.003621 0.004483 0.005694 0.007401 0.009804 0.013612
2025-03-09 0.002866 0.003549 0.004431 0.005686 0.007481 0.010056 0.014233
2025-03-16 0.002776 0.003461 0.004354 0.005639 0.007503 0.010224 0.014734
2025-03-23 0.002670 0.003348 0.004238 0.005531 0.007431 0.010242 0.014992
2025-03-30 0.002579 0.003251 0.004140 0.005445 0.007384 0.010296 0.015307
2025-04-06 0.002527 0.003205 0.004112 0.005456 0.007481 0.010575 0.016020
2025-04-13 0.002406 0.003062 0.003943 0.005257 0.007252 0.010325 0.015801
2025-04-20 0.002365 0.003028 0.003925 0.005278 0.007358 0.010618 0.016553
2025-04-27 0.002367 0.003052 0.003990 0.005423 0.007663 0.011248 0.017966
2025-05-04 0.002301 0.002980 0.003915 0.005354 0.007627 0.011310 0.018330
2025-05-11 0.002254 0.002932 0.003874 0.005335 0.007669 0.011504 0.018961
2025-05-18 0.002201 0.002876 0.003819 0.005293 0.007670 0.011628 0.019462